• Skip to primary navigation
  • Skip to main content
學投資俱樂部

學投資俱樂部

  • Investcoo
  • Club會員區
  • 訂閱價
  • 關於
    • 關於我們
    • 私隱政策
  • 支援
  • 豋入
  • Show Search
Hide Search

港股美股虎頭蛇尾怎麼辦?

美股及港股似乎是虎頭蛇尾,2023年一開始就係威係勢,市場氣氛好似逆轉過來,港股升得更勁,跑贏了全世界咁,跟著分析員出嚟火上加油,又話睇恒生指數會上二萬四,近排大家收晒聲。

年頭的時候筆者曾寫過一篇文章 “股市真的轉好?唔好開心得太早”,提大家唔好太興奮住,因為歷史告訴我們,好多時候可能係虛火嚟,特別是港股,屢見不鮮。

我沒有水晶球,只是參照經驗,同時另一個問題係,困擾股市的因素未見太大改善,好難睇得太好。我們所能做的是趁勢,高位減啲貨,特別是港股,所以我都沽咗部份的港交所(0388)。

港股險守二萬點

港股投資要靠自己,無論是市場上的分析員,或者報紙雜誌的評論,唔睇無乜損失,一來精英部隊走去評美股,港股宜炒不宜長,基本分析及圖表分析作用不大,政策一轉,話蝕就蝕,同時本地證券行大間小小的是中資行,細間的分析可以有幾專?會否唱好不唱淡?資訊流通也是好大問題。

美股會好好多,資訊流通發達,百花齊放又比較專業,市場可預測性比港股高,這也是吸引一批資深股民的原因。

話說回來,港股在1月27日升到去接近22,700水平的高位,升幅接近一成半。之後急轉直下,依家險守二萬點關口,年頭的升幅所剩無幾,恒生指數年初至今升幅收窄至1%,跌到去20,010。

圖:港股今年以來走勢

道指率先見紅

美股方面,三大指數當中,道瓊斯指數率先由升轉跌,年初至今下跌1%。標普500指數升幅只是剩低3%,納斯達克指數好少少,仍有接近9%的升幅。

美股三大指數都代表不同類型的股份,道瓊指數代表一些傳統的股份,多是較穩健型的股份,去年跌得相對較少,而這類股份其實年初反彈幅度並不顯著。標普500指數反映各類大企業表現,整體表現平平。2023年頭至今,升幅最顯著的就是去年跌得最多的增長型股份,特別是科技股及加密貨幣相關股份,年初出現報復性反彈,其實近期高位回落得唔少。依家剩返9%的升幅,未知可以捱得幾耐。

過去一年,美國連番加息,越加越勁,市場預期捱到今年,經濟會冷卻,聯儲局可以收手。奈何經濟仍然唔差,失業率低過疫情前水平,消費信心無受影響,經濟仍有增長,大家對快將停止加息的期望似乎要落空了,近期出多一些數據,資金就借勢說再見。

事實上,聯儲局連番加息對美國經濟真的沒有影響?定影響有滯後的作用?只可以預期,今年上半年,市場都未明朗,投資的部署一係小心一點,一係趁勢,跌得 “好多”的話,趁低吸納作長線的部署。

(27/2/2023)

Copyright © 2023 · 學投資 · Log in

  • 關於
  • 會員登入
  • 私隱政策
  • 支援
  • 關於我們
We use cookies on our website to give you the most relevant experience by remembering your preferences and repeat visits. By clicking “Accept All”, you consent to the use of ALL the cookies. However, you may visit "Cookie Settings" to provide a controlled consent.
Cookie SettingsAccept All
Manage consent

Privacy Overview

This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. Out of these, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website. We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. But opting out of some of these cookies may affect your browsing experience.
Necessary
Always Enabled
Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. These cookies ensure basic functionalities and security features of the website, anonymously.
CookieDurationDescription
cookielawinfo-checkbox-analytics11 monthsThis cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Analytics".
cookielawinfo-checkbox-functional11 monthsThe cookie is set by GDPR cookie consent to record the user consent for the cookies in the category "Functional".
cookielawinfo-checkbox-necessary11 monthsThis cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookies is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Necessary".
cookielawinfo-checkbox-others11 monthsThis cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Other.
cookielawinfo-checkbox-performance11 monthsThis cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Performance".
viewed_cookie_policy11 monthsThe cookie is set by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin and is used to store whether or not user has consented to the use of cookies. It does not store any personal data.
Functional
Functional cookies help to perform certain functionalities like sharing the content of the website on social media platforms, collect feedbacks, and other third-party features.
Performance
Performance cookies are used to understand and analyze the key performance indexes of the website which helps in delivering a better user experience for the visitors.
Analytics
Analytical cookies are used to understand how visitors interact with the website. These cookies help provide information on metrics the number of visitors, bounce rate, traffic source, etc.
Advertisement
Advertisement cookies are used to provide visitors with relevant ads and marketing campaigns. These cookies track visitors across websites and collect information to provide customized ads.
Others
Other uncategorized cookies are those that are being analyzed and have not been classified into a category as yet.
SAVE & ACCEPT