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美國航空股還能再飛高一啲嗎?

早幾年肺炎疫情對旅遊業的打擊相當大,不少航空股的股價跌至谷底。但隨着各地走出疫情的陰霾,業務慢慢恢復過來,股價才有起色,不過又遇著高油價的打擊,真可謂多災多難。香港的國泰航空(0293)宣布的業績,一如香港的經濟情況,都是同業中的包尾的大軍,虧損擴大主要受國航(00753)等聯屬公司拖累,本身的經營有錢賺。不過,今次想講的唔係國泰,係美國的航空股。

自去年開始,美國幾間大型航空公司的業務表現有起色,股價反彈的幅度遠遠多過大市。暑假旺季快嚟,要唔要上機好呢🤔。

(Photo by Nick Morales on Unsplash)

今年以來,美國四大航空公司股價都有唔錯表現,達美(DAL)及美國航空(AAL)亦分別錄得22%及30%的升幅。西南航空(LUV)表現弱一啲,只升了4%,屬於美國航空股當中,表現較差的一隻。聯合航空(IAL)則反彈了46%。

事實上,自去年以來,聯合航空累積升了68%,美國同業中,算是最標青的一隻。

圖:美國四大航空公司今年以來股價表現

肺炎疫情對美國航空業造成了重大影響,導致乘客需求和收入急劇下降。 2020 年 3 月,美國政府實施旅行限制,許多乘客因安全問題而取消或延遲旅行計劃。 結果,美國航空公司的收入和盈利大幅下降,並出現重大虧損,股價亦跌到谷底,直去2021年中年才有起色。

隨著油價從高位回順,燃油開支壓力減輕,加上旅遊業持續走出疫情影響,市場都預期航公司的業務及邊際利潤會進一步改善,所以股價今年持續有不錯的表現。

不過,航空股近年表現突出,收入和股價距離2020年肺炎疫情困擾前的水平尚有一大段距離,反觀大市,標普指數早於兩年前收復晒失地。

圖:UAL及標普指數5年股價走勢

聯合航空屬航空業的大好友

總部設在芝加哥的聯合航空,持有聯合航空和Continental Airlines,除了北美之外,亦提供亞洲、歐洲、中東和拉丁美洲等地客運及貨運服務。

呢間公司對航空業的前景相當樂觀,管理層相信業務仍會有強勁的表現,所以去年12月宣布了一項歷史性訂單,將購買多達200架新的波音寬體飛機。這個舉措有人睇好也有人睇淡。

如果航空業一如聯合航空管理層睇得咁好,美國及全球旅遊業復甦的話,這家航空公司,由於早有準備,業務表現自然可以勝人一籌。如果油價跟隨通脹回落,成本開支又可以受惠。

相反,如果美國及全球旅遊業受到利率高企及經濟放緩影響,通脹又高居不下,這樣聯合航空借了大量資金增購客機,負債增加令借貸成本急升,同時,通脹下機隊人員的人工有加薪壓力,各項開支上升,但收入則可能因為經濟轉差,消費能力減弱,導至旅客減少而收縮,聯合航空受到的影響也會比較大。

所以大家研究航空股時,都係要留意番經濟情況的發展,特別是航空業是經濟敏感度高的行業,經濟好、通脹低,航空股表現強勁,相信,就難以維持近年的強勢。

(9/3/2022)

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